LZLJ(SZ:000568) Huaxin Securities·2025-05-08 03:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with revenue and profit showing resilience. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 311.96 billion and 134.73 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3% and 2% [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong performance of its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, and its long-term strategic planning [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue and net profit for Q4 were 68.93 billion and 18.80 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 17% and 30% [5] - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit were 93.52 billion and 45.93 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 2% and 0.4% [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 88% and 43%, with slight year-on-year declines of 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points [5] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 191.82 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 80% [5] Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories for 2024 was 275.85 billion and 34.67 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.77% and 7.15% [6] - The sales volume for mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 4.30 and 6.08 million tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 14.39% and 3.54% [6] - Revenue from traditional and emerging channels for 2024 was 295.73 billion and 14.79 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3.20% and 4.16% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 9.27, 10.15, and 11.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times [8][10]