泸州老窖：业绩稳健增长，2025年稳中求进-20250508

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with revenue and profit showing resilience. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 311.96 billion and 134.73 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3% and 2% [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong performance of its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, and its long-term strategic planning [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue and net profit were 311.96 billion and 134.73 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 3% and 2%. In Q4 2024, total revenue and net profit were 68.93 billion and 18.80 billion yuan, showing declines of 17% and 30% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit were 93.52 billion and 45.93 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 2% and 0.4% [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 88% and 43%, respectively, with slight year-on-year declines of 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points. In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net margin were 87% and 49%, with year-on-year declines of 1.9 and 0.5 percentage points [5] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 191.82 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 80%, while sales collection was 400.36 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, operating cash flow and sales collection were 33.08 billion and 98.67 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 24% and 7% [5] Product and Channel Performance Summary - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories for 2024 was 275.85 billion and 34.67 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.77% and 7.15%. Mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 88.43% of total revenue [6] - In terms of sales volume, mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories sold 4.30 and 6.08 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 14.39% and 3.54% [6] - Revenue from traditional and emerging channels for 2024 was 295.73 billion and 14.79 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.20% and 4.16% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 9.27, 10.15, and 11.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times [8][10]