太阳纸业：Q1超预期，预计Q2环比向上-20250508

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 results that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 9.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.89 billion, down 7.3% year-on-year but up 37.9% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 15.78%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is expected to see continued profit improvement in Q2 2025, driven by price increases in pulp and paper products and a decrease in raw material costs [1]. - The company has a robust capacity expansion plan, with several projects in progress, including the trial production of specialty paper in Shandong and the second phase of living paper in Nanning expected to start trial production in Q4 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 8.97%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 39.54 billion in 2023 to 52.99 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.80% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3.09 billion in 2023 to 4.78 billion in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 14.14% [4]. Market Conditions - The average market price for double glue paper in Q1 2025 was approximately 5200 yuan/ton, down 10% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter. The average market price for copper plate paper was about 5800 yuan/ton, down 2% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The boxboard paper market showed stability in profitability, with an average market price of 3600 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, down 2% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with multiple projects set to begin trial production in Q4 2025, including high-end packaging paper and specialty paper [3]. - The company is also making progress in forestry development in Laos, aiming to achieve a target of 120,000 hectares of forest land by 2030 [3].