高盛：美国经济分析-即将到来的通胀攀升-关税对消费者物价的影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The upcoming implementation of large tariffs is expected to reverse the progress made in controlling inflation in the US, which had previously shown signs of stabilization in the labor market and wage growth [2][3] - Tariffs are projected to increase the core PCE price index by approximately 2¼%, with a significant impact on consumer electronics and apparel categories [6][22] - Year-over-year core PCE inflation is forecasted to be 3.8% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, which is higher than previous estimates [39][55] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Prices - Each 1 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate is estimated to raise core PCE prices by 0.10%, with an expected rise of about 15 percentage points in the effective tariff rate leading to a 1½% increase in core PCE prices [6][22] - The weakening of the dollar in response to tariff news is expected to amplify the direct impact of tariffs on prices [11][22] - A shift in import demand from China to countries with higher production costs but lower US tariff rates is anticipated to further raise US prices without a corresponding increase in the effective tariff rate [11][19] Sector-Specific Effects - Consumer electronics and apparel are particularly vulnerable to tariff impacts, with imported goods accounting for roughly 40% of final consumption expenditure in these categories [35][41] - The effective tariff rates on these imports are expected to increase by 20-30 percentage points, leading to significant price increases [35][41] Inflation Forecasts - The report predicts a sharp acceleration in core goods inflation, forecasting a rise from 0.4% in March 2025 to 6.3% in December 2025 [39][55] - Core services inflation is expected to remain less affected by tariffs in the initial months, allowing for a clearer comparison of the impact of tariffs on core goods versus core services [39][55] Market Expectations - The report indicates that the forecast for year-over-year headline CPI inflation is expected to rise from 2.4% to as high as 3.7% by March 2025, which is above market-implied expectations [55][56]