SF Holding(002352) 中银国际·2025-05-08 06:05Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 69.85 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.23 billion, an increase of 16.87% year-on-year. The performance indicates a steady growth trend, supported by the gradual recovery of domestic consumption and the company's active expansion into international markets [1][4][5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 11.72 billion, RMB 13.41 billion, and RMB 15.28 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.2%, 14.4%, and 14.0% [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. The revenue of RMB 69.85 billion and net profit of RMB 2.23 billion were primarily driven by the continuous improvement of the product matrix and enhanced service competitiveness [4][5] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 9.29 billion, with a gross margin of 13.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Business Segments - The express logistics segment saw a revenue growth of 7.2% year-on-year, while the supply chain and international segments grew by 9.9% year-on-year. The growth in traditional business is attributed to the company's penetration into various logistics scenarios in manufacturing and consumer sectors [4][5] - The emerging business segments are benefiting from strengthened international network capabilities and deeper business integration [4] Valuation - The company's future performance is expected to be driven by the recovery of domestic consumption and the progress of international market expansion. The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are RMB 2.35, RMB 2.69, and RMB 3.06, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.7, 16.3, and 14.3, respectively [5][7]