Haoneng(SH:603809) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-08 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8][18]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, up 30% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is projected to continue its rapid growth in 2025, with expectations of nearly 40% growth driven by the differential gear and aerospace businesses [4][8]. - The company aims to become a leading supplier in the domestic automotive transmission system and a core component supplier for robotics, with plans for new product development [4][8]. Financial Summary - 2025 Financial Projections: - Total revenue is expected to reach 2,837 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.2% [4]. - Net profit is projected at 452 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.54 yuan [4]. - Valuation Metrics: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 26 times in 2025, decreasing to 17 times by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 3.2 in 2025 to 2.6 in 2027 [4]. - Market Performance: - The company's stock price target is set between 16.3 and 19.0 yuan, with the current price at 14.25 yuan [4][8]. Business Growth Drivers - The differential gear business is expected to see a revenue increase of 60% in 2025, contributing significantly to net profit growth [4][8]. - The aerospace business is anticipated to grow by over 30% in 2025, supported by increased downstream installation volumes [4][8]. - Traditional businesses are projected to grow by around 5% due to recovery in exports and heavy truck sales [4][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has signed an investment contract with the Chongqing government to develop a smart manufacturing core component project, with an initial investment of 1 billion yuan [4][8]. - Plans include the development of new products such as hollow motor shafts and reducers to capitalize on trends in electrification and supply chain specialization [4][8].