TFC(SZ:300394) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-08 09:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The delivery of passive product lines is accelerating in H2 2024, while active products are awaiting the ramp-up of new 1.6T products. The company reported a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.344 billion yuan, up 84% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is experiencing improved cost management in Q4 2024, with inventory levels increasing by 13.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive demand outlook. The establishment of overseas production capacity is expected to enhance delivery capabilities and mitigate tariff impacts [11][12]. - The CPO/OIO market presents significant growth opportunities, driven by AI advancements and the increasing demand for high-performance optical modules [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's passive components business generated revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year, while the active components business achieved 1.655 billion yuan, a 122% increase year-on-year. Domestic revenue reached 778 million yuan, up 125%, and overseas revenue was 2.473 billion yuan, up 55% [11][12]. - The gross margin for passive components was 68.4%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, while active components had a gross margin of 46.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Cost Management and Production Capacity - In Q4 2024, the company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 0.3%, 3.7%, 6.9%, and -6.3%, respectively, showing improvements compared to previous quarters [11][12]. - The company is increasing its inventory levels, reflecting a positive demand trend, and its fixed assets have increased by 7.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating the gradual establishment of overseas production capacity [11][12]. Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the CPO and Optical I/O markets, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI and high-performance optical module demand [11][12]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.081 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.386 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24%, respectively [11][12].