家家悦（603708）：首次覆盖报告：新烘焙，新家悦

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the first time for the company [5][52]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of the company's baking segment, suggesting that if the brand gains momentum, it could become a favorable investment opportunity [6][10]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 185.66 billion, 192.58 billion, and 200.66 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 4%, and 4% [5][52]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.79 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.00 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 36%, 41%, and 18% respectively [5][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The total share capital is 638.34 million shares, with a market price of 10.85 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 6,926 million yuan [2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 17,763 million, 18,256 million, 18,566 million, 19,258 million, and 20,066 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of -2%, 3%, 2%, 4%, and 4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is expected to be 136 million, 132 million, 179 million, 254 million, and 300 million yuan, with growth rates of 127%, -3%, 36%, 41%, and 18% [5]. Business Strategy - The company is entering the fresh baking market, which is still in its early stages, and aims to leverage its existing supermarket channels to enhance brand recognition and sales [7][10]. - The report notes that the company has already opened approximately 70 baking stores, primarily within supermarkets, indicating a focus on integrating baking into its existing retail operations [31][32]. Market Trends - The baking market in China is projected to exceed 550 billion yuan in retail sales by 2023, with a growth rate of nearly 10% year-on-year [12]. - The report highlights the increasing number of entrants in the baking sector, which is expected to cultivate consumer habits and expand market demand [15]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned favorably compared to its peers, with a lower valuation relative to other listed supermarket companies, suggesting potential for growth as it develops its baking segment [52][48].