证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 商贸零售 商社板块 2025 年四季度前瞻 1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volume during the Spring Festival, with an anticipated 95 million passengers, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [2][5]. - The retail sector showed a slight increase in consumer spending, with a total retail sales of 45,136 billion yuan in December 2025, marking a 0.9% year-on-year growth [5]. - The report highlights the continuous rise in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing 4,800 USD per ounce, leading to increased prices for domestic gold jewelry [5]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of travel policies on tourism and hotel sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like Atour, Huazhu Group, and Jinjiang Hotels [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Civil Aviation - The report indicates that the domestic flight ticket prices have slightly increased compared to the previous year during the Spring Festival [5]. - The Civil Aviation Administration forecasts a daily average of 2.38 million passengers during the Spring Festival period [5]. Retail Sector - The total retail sales for the year 2025 reached 501,202 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase [5]. - The report notes that the opening of the child-rearing subsidy program on January 5, 2026, will provide 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old [5]. Company Announcements - China Duty Free Group announced the acquisition of DFS's travel retail business in Greater China for up to 395 million USD [5]. - Jiajiayue expects a net profit of 198 million to 228 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.06% to 72.79% [5]. - Meikailong anticipates a net loss of 22.5 billion to 15 billion yuan for 2025, a significant decline compared to the previous year [5]. - Jinling Hotel expects a net profit of 55 million to 63.5 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 65.37% to 90.93% year-on-year [5].

Group 1: iMoutai Packaging Correction and After-Sales Solutions - iMoutai has corrected the packaging of the classic version of Guizhou Moutai liquor (53% vol 500ml) and announced two after-sales solutions [1] - The first solution allows consumers to exchange the original product for the corrected version at Moutai self-operated stores until December 31, 2026 [1] - The second solution involves a "pen tool" for consumers to correct the packaging themselves, with further details to be announced [1] Group 2: Jinsha Liquor's Organizational Restructuring - Jinsha Liquor has shifted its strategy from "pan-nationalization" to "regional market gradient cultivation" to pursue high-quality development [2] - The company has restructured its organization into a "functional department + regional district" model to enhance market responsiveness and decision-making efficiency [2] - Marketing strategies will focus on content and scenario marketing, with a strong emphasis on digital capabilities for cost control and data analysis [2] Group 3: Xijiu's Sales Growth on JD.com - Xijiu's sales on JD.com have surpassed 1.4 billion yuan in 2025, marking a significant milestone in their partnership with the platform [3] Group 4: Yanjing Beer Profit Forecast - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.583 billion to 1.742 billion yuan for the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [4] - The company is focusing on a big product strategy and enhancing brand management to drive growth [4][5] Group 5: ST Juewei's Revenue and Loss Forecast - ST Juewei anticipates a revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 12.09% to 15.29% year-on-year, with a projected net loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan [10] - The company cites underutilized production capacity and increased non-operating expenses as factors affecting performance [10] Group 6: Liangpinpuzi's Expected Losses - Liangpinpuzi forecasts a net loss of 120 million to 160 million yuan for 2025, primarily due to store optimization and product adjustments [11] - The company is focusing on improving management efficiency and reducing costs, but revenue and gross margin declines have impacted profitability [11] Group 7: Yijia Yue's Profit Growth Projection - Yijia Yue expects a net profit increase of 50.06% to 72.79% for 2025, driven by enhanced customer orientation and store upgrades [18] - The company is optimizing its product offerings and improving operational efficiency to boost profitability [18] Group 8: Yonghui Supermarket's Stake Sale - Yonghui Supermarket plans to sell a 28.095% stake in YunJin Technology for 80 million yuan to focus on its core business [16][17]

在零售行业既面临变革创新的挑战，又面临新的发展机遇时， 家家悦 （603708.SH）做到了稳中向 好。 1月21日晚间，家家悦公告显示，公司预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润（简称"归母净利 润"）1.98亿元至2.28亿元，同比增长50.06%至72.79%。 长江商报记者发现，家家悦2025年盈利水平为近5年以来最高。 家家悦介绍，在抓好存量门店单店效率提升的基础上，加快重点门店的调改升级，调改后的门店营业收 入和利润增长较好，优化关闭效率低的门店，门店整体提质增效明显。 同时，家家悦介绍，公司加快商品结构的调优和汰换，2025年可比门店客流同比增长约2%， 综合 毛利 率相对稳定，略有提升。 家家悦主要业务为连锁超市经营，是以经营生鲜为特色的多业态、全渠道、全产业链的综合性零售渠道 商。 早在2022年10月，家家悦董事长王培桓曾表示，当年上半年省外门店营收规模快速增加，亏损情况大幅 改善。未来公司在坚持"区域密集"的前提下，放慢展店节奏。 2022年半年报显示，家家悦直营连锁门店数量为960家。 武汉一家连锁超市相关负责人向长江商报记者表示，家家悦根据顾客需求和消费习惯，对门店进行合理 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with Zijin Mining, BAIC Blue Valley, and Huqin Technology leading the rankings with target price increases of 65.69%, 40.29%, and 39.15% respectively, across the industrial metals, passenger vehicles, and consumer electronics sectors [1][2]. Group 2 - On January 22, a total of 24 listed companies received recommendations from securities firms, with Lihigh Food receiving 2 recommendations, while companies like Baolong Oriental and BAIC Blue Valley received 1 recommendation each [4]. - The companies that received first-time coverage on January 22 include BAIC Blue Valley with a "Buy" rating from Guotai Junan Securities, Yanzhou Coal with an "Outperform" rating from Guosen Securities, Hezhu Intelligent with a "Buy" rating from Huayuan Securities, and Jiachih Technology with a "Buy" rating from Kaiyuan Securities [5][6].

家家悦股价出现异动，截至今日9时38分，股价大涨5.20%，成交1224.96万股，成交金额1.71亿元，换 手率为1.92%，公司发布的最新业绩预告显示，预计2025年实现净利润1.98亿元—2.28亿元，净利润同 比增长50.06%—72.79%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，今日公布2025年业绩预告公司中，截至发稿股价较为强势的有金安国纪、 毅昌科技、南方精工等，股价分别上涨10.01%、9.96%、5.54%。 资金面上看，家家悦近5日主力资金总体呈净流入状态，累计净流入1785.37万元，其中，上一交易日主 力资金全天净流出724.71万元。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新（1月21日）两融余额1.29亿元，其中，融资余额为1.29亿元，近5日融资 余额合计减少484.92万元，降幅为3.63%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiajiayue Group Co., Ltd., forecasts a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a growth of 50.06% to 72.79% compared to the previous year, driven by enhanced customer service and product offerings [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 198 million yuan and 228 million yuan for the year 2025, an increase of 66.05 million yuan to 96.05 million yuan year-on-year [2][4]. - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 180 million yuan and 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.33 million yuan to 94.33 million yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the previous year, the total profit was 187.08 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 131.95 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 115.67 million yuan [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Change - The company has adapted to market changes by enhancing customer orientation, improving store efficiency, and upgrading key stores, resulting in a positive trend in customer traffic and sales, with comparable store traffic and sales increasing by approximately 8% and 6% respectively in the fourth quarter [8]. - The company has focused on improving product offerings by shifting to a customer-driven approach, optimizing product structure, and enhancing its own brand and customized products, leading to a stable increase in customer traffic and slight improvement in overall gross margin [8].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：603708 证券简称：家家悦 公告编号：2026-001 债券代码：113584 证券简称：家悦转债 家家悦集团股份有限公司 2025年年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ● 业绩预告的具体适用情形：实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比上升50%以上。 ● 家家悦集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润19,800 万元至22,800万元，与上年同期相比，将增加6,605万元至9,605万元，同比增长50.06%至72.79%。预计 2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润18,000万元至21,000万元，与上年同 期相比，将增加6,433万元至9,433万元，同比增长55.61%至81.55%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 1、经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润19 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several companies are projected to experience significant growth in net profit for 2025, with increases ranging from over 16% to more than 1400% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Company Projections - Nanfang Precision is expected to see a net profit increase of 1130% to 1417% in 2025 [1] - Jin'an Guoji anticipates a net profit growth of 655.53% to 871.4% for 2025 [1] - Limin Co. forecasts a net profit rise of 471.55% to 514.57% in 2025 [1] - Hekang New Energy projects a net profit increase of 386% to 628% for 2025 [1] - Baiao Intelligent expects a net profit growth of 228.34% to 337.79% in 2025 [1] - Dajin Heavy Industry anticipates a net profit increase of 121.58% to 153.23% for 2025 [1] - Yinhui Technology projects a net profit rise of 114% to 133% in 2025 [1] - Demingli expects a net profit increase of 85% to 128% for 2025 [1] - Juhua Co. forecasts a net profit growth of 80% to 101% in 2025 [1] - Ganli Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit increase of 78.96% to 95.23% for 2025 [1] - Tongfei Co. projects a net profit rise of 56.43% to 74.68% in 2025 [1] - Jiajia Yue expects a net profit increase of 50.06% to 72.79% for 2025 [1] - Tianfu Communication anticipates a net profit growth of 40% to 60% in 2025 [1] - Shunke Zhilian projects a net profit increase of 34.94% to 59.47% for 2025 [1] - Feilihua expects a net profit rise of 31.12% to 50.22% in 2025 [1] - Hailide anticipates a net profit increase of 21.78% to 31.53% for 2025 [1] - Ligao Food projects a net profit growth of 16.06% to 23.52% in 2025 [1]