SA(SH:601021) China Post Securities·2025-05-08 11:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][11]. Core Views - The low-cost airline model demonstrates resilience, with the company expected to benefit from a significant reduction in oil prices, positively impacting cost management [7]. - The civil aviation market in China continues to show growth potential, with the company focusing on expanding international routes despite slight declines in domestic market performance [6][7]. - The company's financial performance for 2024 aligns with expectations, with stable cost management and a slight increase in net profit forecasted for the coming years [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 55.45 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 542 billion yuan [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 20 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, which is a 0.7% increase [3][9]. - The company’s operating capacity increased by 16.1% year-on-year, with passenger turnover rising by 18.8% [4]. Financial Projections - Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.59 billion yuan, 23.06 billion yuan, and 24.62 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.96%, 6.82%, and 6.76% [9]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 2.71 billion yuan, 3.25 billion yuan, and 3.74 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.08%, 19.96%, and 15.12% [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 2.32 yuan in 2024 to 3.82 yuan in 2027 [9][10].