WLY(SZ:000858) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-08 13:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [7][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 891.75 billion CNY and a net profit of 318.53 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09% and 5.44% respectively [1]. - The cash dividend payout ratio for 2024 is projected to be 70%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 369.40 billion CNY and a net profit of 148.60 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth of 6.05% and 5.80% respectively [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate 831.27 billion CNY in liquor revenue, with a gross margin of 82.21%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from Wuliangye liquor products is projected to be 678.75 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 87.02%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.38 percentage points [2]. - The overall liquor growth is primarily driven by price increases, with a volume growth of 1.81% and a price increase of 6.81% year-on-year [2]. Channel and Sales Insights - In 2024, the revenue from distribution and direct sales channels is expected to be 487.38 billion CNY and 343.89 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.99% and 12.89% [2]. - The number of total distributors for Wuliangye has increased to 2,652, up by 82 from the previous year, indicating a growth in distributor scale by 2.71% [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 77.05% and 35.72% respectively, with a slight decrease in net profit margin by 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating cash flow is expected to decrease by 18.69% year-on-year to 339.40 billion CNY [3]. Future Projections - The company anticipates revenue growth of 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8% for the years 2025 to 2027, reaching 939 billion CNY, 995 billion CNY, and 1,062 billion CNY respectively [4]. - Net profit is projected to grow by 5.1%, 6.7%, and 7.6% for the same period, reaching 335 billion CNY, 357 billion CNY, and 384 billion CNY respectively [4].