家家悦：首次覆盖报告新烘焙，新家悦-20250508

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5][52]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of the company's baking segment, suggesting that if the brand gains traction, it could become a favorable investment opportunity [6][10]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 185.66 billion, 192.58 billion, and 200.66 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 4%, and 4% [7][52]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.79 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.00 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 36%, 41%, and 18% respectively [7][52]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company’s total share capital is 638.34 million shares, with a market price of 10.85 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 6,925.97 million yuan [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.28, 0.40, and 0.47 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 38.7, 27.3, and 23.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company has initiated a transformation in its supermarket operations, which is expected to enhance store efficiency and gross margins [42]. - The baking segment is seen as a significant growth area, with the company planning to operate both in-store baking areas and independent baking shops [31][33]. - The report notes that the company has already opened approximately 70 baking stores, primarily within supermarkets, indicating a focus on integrating the baking brand into existing retail spaces [31][36]. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The baking market in China is projected to exceed 550 billion yuan in retail sales by 2023, with a growth rate of nearly 10% year-on-year [12]. - The report highlights the increasing number of entrants in the baking sector, which is expected to cultivate consumer habits and expand market demand [15]. - The company is positioned to leverage partnerships with established brands in the baking industry, enhancing its market presence and operational capabilities [27].