KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 天风证券·2025-05-08 14:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 506.01 billion, 268.47 billion, and 268.5 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.54%, 11.56%, and 11.64% [1]. - The revenue from liquor sales increased by 10.82% to 505.80 billion yuan, indicating robust demand [1]. - The series liquor revenue saw a significant increase of 18.30% to 70.22 billion yuan, with its proportion of total revenue rising to 13.88% [2]. - Direct sales channels performed exceptionally well, with direct sales revenue growing by 20.19% to 232.20 billion yuan, accounting for 45.91% of total revenue [2]. - The company maintained a stable profit margin, with a slight increase in net profit margin to 53.06% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 91.97%, and the net profit margin was 53.06%, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.64 and +0.48 percentage points respectively [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024 [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to grow by 9%, 8%, and 8% respectively, reaching 1903 billion, 2059 billion, and 2224 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 9%, 8%, and 8% for the same period, reaching 943 billion, 1022 billion, and 1108 billion yuan [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21X, 19X, and 18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 75.03 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 21.03 [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,982.52 billion yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 7.72 for 2025 [7][5].