Baosteelpackage(SH:601968) Guotou Securities·2025-05-09 00:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 6.42 CNY, while the current stock price is 4.77 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company maintains a strong position as a leader in the metal packaging industry, with gradual improvements in overseas expansion efforts [2][8]. - The company has optimized its product structure and overseas business layout, enhancing its core competitiveness and operational efficiency [2][8]. - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 88.21 billion CNY, 94.76 billion CNY, and 101.71 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.05%, 7.42%, and 7.34% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.318 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 172 million CNY, a decrease of 21.13% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.158 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.00%, with a net profit of 15 million CNY, down 6.04% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.002 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.02%, with a net profit of 57 million CNY, up 2.67% year-on-year [1]. Product and Market Analysis - The company’s revenue from metal beverage cans and printed iron packaging in 2024 was 7.858 billion CNY and 447 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.22% and a decline of 7.36% [2]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 2.377 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.78%, while domestic revenue was 5.928 billion CNY, with a growth of 1.27% [2]. - The company’s metal beverage can sales volume increased by 13.82% to 16.813 billion cans in 2024, although the average price per can decreased by 5.0% to 0.47 CNY [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 8.10%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.30%, down 0.83 percentage points year-on-year [3][8]. - In Q1 2025, the company’s gross margin was 7.06%, a decline of 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin improved to 3.21%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points year-on-year [3][8]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio for 2024 was 4.00%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost management [3].