Yangnong Chemical(SH:600486) HTSC·2025-05-09 02:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 56.61 [8][9]. Core Views - The final ruling on anti-dumping measures against imported chlorpyrifos from India is expected to boost domestic prices, which have been low for a long time. This is anticipated to positively impact the company's growth prospects, particularly with the Huludao project, leading to a gradual recovery in industry conditions [1][3]. - The company has reported a significant increase in the average market prices of its main products as of May 8, 2025, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [3]. - The company's Huludao project is progressing well, with construction completed ahead of schedule, which is expected to contribute positively to future profits [4]. Summary by Sections Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against imported chlorpyrifos from India, with anti-dumping duties ranging from 48.4% to 166.2% to be implemented for five years starting May 7, 2025. This is expected to alleviate price suppression from imports [1][2]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - The average market prices for key products such as high-efficiency fluorochlorpyrifos and others have shown slight increases compared to early 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in the agricultural chemical market [3]. Project Development - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company has reported ongoing construction projects valued at RMB 1.76 billion, with the Huludao project expected to enhance profitability as production ramps up [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 1.35 billion, RMB 1.55 billion, and RMB 1.75 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 15%, and 13% [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 3.33, RMB 3.81, and RMB 4.31 for the same years [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 times for 2025, based on comparable company analysis, leading to a target price of RMB 56.61 [5][9].