YILI(SH:600887) Dongxing Securities·2025-05-09 03:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, an increase of 1.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.71% year-on-year [3][5] - The milk powder and dairy products segment showed growth, with revenues of 29.68 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.81 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 7.53% and 18.65%, respectively. The increase in sales was primarily driven by volume [4][5] - The gross margin improved, and the expense ratio began to decline, suggesting an improvement in profitability for 2025. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 37.67%, up 1.88 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk costs and a higher proportion of high-margin products [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 126.18 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 2.44%. In 2024, revenue decreased to 115.78 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -8.24%. Projections for 2025 estimate revenue to rise to 119.64 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.33% [6][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.43 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 8.45 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected recovery to 11.34 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 34.15% [6][12] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.78 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17 for 2025, 15 for 2026, and 14 for 2027 [5][11]