保隆科技：Q1净利高增，空悬有望持续放量-20250509

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.025 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 303 million RMB, down 20.14% year-on-year, primarily due to lower gross margins in the ADAS business [1][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.9 billion RMB, up 28.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 100 million RMB, up 40.0% year-on-year, indicating strong growth momentum [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of its air suspension products and the growth of ADAS products, with a backlog of orders for ADAS reaching 7.5 billion RMB as of April 2025 [2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 7.025 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 19.12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 303 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 20.14% year-on-year [1][7] - The Q1 2025 revenue was 1.9 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, while the net profit was 100 million RMB, up 40.0% year-on-year [1][2] Business Segments - The TPMS business maintained steady growth with a revenue increase of 12% to 2.15 billion RMB in 2024. The sensor segment saw a 25% increase in revenue to 670 million RMB, while the air suspension segment grew by 42% to 990 million RMB [2][3] - The company has 16 projects for air suspension products expected to go into mass production within the year, contributing to revenue growth [2] Cost Management and Margins - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 25.1% in 2024, attributed to a shift in business structure with a higher revenue contribution from lower-margin ADAS and sensor products [3] - The company successfully reduced sales and management expense ratios, with sales expense ratio down by 0.4 percentage points to 3.3% and management expense ratio down by 0.6 percentage points to 5.8% in 2024 [3] Global Expansion - The company has made significant progress in expanding its overseas business, with a 108% increase in overseas revenue from its subsidiary, reaching 1.03 billion RMB [4] - The company has secured strategic partnerships and is actively pursuing global supply opportunities, particularly in Europe [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 17% and 8% to 500 million RMB and 700 million RMB, respectively, with an expected net profit of 850 million RMB in 2027 [5] - The target price for the company is set at 49.37 RMB, based on a 21.1x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9]