YTCO(SH:600066) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-09 04:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.42 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. The company is recognized as a global leader in the bus industry, with good long-term growth potential and a consistent high dividend capability, highlighting its investment value [2][4]. - In the domestic market, the sales of seated buses continue to grow, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, which promotes the growth of new energy buses. In the overseas market, the company's globalization and high-end strategy are advancing, with exports demonstrating profitability, supporting continuous performance improvement [2][9]. - The company's capital expenditure has slowed down, and its cash flow is sufficient to ensure high dividends. The expected dividend for the full year of 2024 is 1.5 yuan per share (before tax), with a total distribution of 3.32 billion yuan and a dividend payout ratio of 80.7%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.6% [9]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the total sales volume increased by 16.6% year-on-year, reaching 9,011 units, although the export and new energy export proportions decreased due to order rhythm impacts. The average selling price (ASP) per unit was 712,000 yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [9]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 18.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in product structure. The net profit margin reached 11.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.82 billion yuan and 5.60 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.3X and 10.6X [9]. - The company is enhancing its direct sales and service model, improving service quality and efficiency, and is expanding its overseas production capacity, with a new factory in Qatar expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [9].