YILI(SH:600887) Dongxing Securities·2025-05-09 04:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.71% year-on-year [3][5] - The milk powder and dairy products segment is highlighted as a growth driver, with revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 reaching 29.68 billion yuan and 8.81 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 7.53% and 18.65% [4][5] - The gross margin improved to 33.88% in 2024 and 37.67% in Q1 2025, attributed to lower raw milk costs and an increased proportion of high-margin products [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company recorded total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.45 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 18.94% [6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.34 billion yuan, 12.30 billion yuan, and 13.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.78, 1.93, and 2.05 [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 34% in the coming years, with a net profit margin projected to improve gradually [5][11]