LZLJ(SZ:000568) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-09 05:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 9.352 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2024 was 27.585 billion yuan, an increase of 2.77% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 3.467 billion yuan, up 7.15% year-on-year [10]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, with a payout ratio of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan [2][10]. - Q4 2024 showed a significant decline in revenue and profit compared to the previous year [2][10]. - Q1 2025 demonstrated a slight recovery in revenue and profit [2][10]. Product and Channel Analysis - Mid-to-high-end liquor sales contributed significantly to revenue growth, while other liquor categories also saw positive growth [10]. - Traditional channels generated 29.573 billion yuan in revenue, up 3.2% year-on-year, while emerging channels contributed 1.479 billion yuan, an increase of 4.16% [10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 43.19%, and the gross margin fell by 0.76 percentage points to 87.54% [10]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin further declined by 0.67 percentage points to 49.11% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth, with projected EPS of 9.44 yuan and 10.03 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.3 and 12.5 times [10].