玲珑轮胎（601966）：2024年报及2025Q1季报点评：原材料涨价致业绩承压，拟建巴西项目基地

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is facing pressure on its performance in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material prices, but it is expected to benefit from long-term capacity releases and growth in both the supporting and replacement segments [1][9]. - The Serbia project is ramping up production quickly, and the company plans to establish a project base in Brazil, which will enhance its production capabilities [1][9]. - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of RMB 1.46 for 2025 and RMB 1.68 for 2026, with a new forecast of RMB 1.86 for 2027 [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are forecasted at RMB 22.06 billion and RMB 1.75 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 9.39% and 26.01% [3][9]. - The company’s revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be RMB 6.11 billion, with a net profit of RMB 0.041 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.41% but a significant decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter [9]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected at RMB 5.70 billion, with a net profit of RMB 0.34 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 12.92% in revenue but a decline of 22.78% in net profit [9]. Production and Sales Growth - The company’s tyre production for 2024 is expected to reach 89.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.65%, with sales volume at 85.45 million units, up 9.57% [9]. - In Q1 2025, tyre production and sales are projected at 23.03 million and 21.41 million units, respectively, with sales volume increasing by 12.78% year-on-year [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "7+5" layout strategy and is establishing a third overseas base in Brazil, which will significantly enhance its production capacity [9]. - The Serbia base has commenced production, primarily supplying the European market, while the Brazil project aims to produce various types of tyres and reclaimed rubber [9].