ZJJH(SH:600160) Donghai Securities·2025-05-09 08:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant performance improvement due to the rising demand for refrigerants, with a reported revenue of 24.462 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.43% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [4][5] - The implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quotas has optimized the supply-demand and competitive landscape, leading to a recovery in refrigerant prices, which is expected to further enhance the company's revenue and net profit margins [4][5] - The company is positioned as a global leader in refrigerants, benefiting from a significant price increase in refrigerants, with R22, R32, R134a, and R125 prices rising by 84.62%, 172.46%, 66.07%, and 62.16% respectively as of March 31, 2025 [4][5] - The demand for refrigerants is supported by a year-on-year increase in air conditioning production, with a reported production of 23.3 million units in May, up 9.9% from the previous year [4] - The company has made substantial investments in fixed assets totaling 2.467 billion yuan in 2024, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing its industrial chain advantages [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance outlook, with revised profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 net profits projected at 4.236 billion yuan and 5.571 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.800 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.809 billion yuan, up 160.64% [4] Market Position - The company is a leader in the refrigerant market, benefiting from favorable pricing trends and regulatory support through the implementation of third-generation refrigerant quotas [4][5] - The average price changes for various products include a 32.69% increase in refrigerants and a 23.19% increase in fluorochemical raw materials [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profits, with projections for 2025 and 2026 at 4.236 billion yuan and 5.571 billion yuan respectively, and an additional forecast for 2027 at 6.466 billion yuan [4][5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.57 yuan, 2.06 yuan, and 2.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 17.20X, 13.07X, and 11.26X [4][5]