LZLJ(SZ:000568) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-05-09 10:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" rating to the company, predicting a relative increase of 0% to 5% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 9.352 billion yuan, a 1.78% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.595 billion yuan, up 0.94% year-on-year [6][9]. - Sales growth has significantly narrowed, with a 3.19% revenue increase in 2024, down 17.15 percentage points from 2023. The second half of 2024 saw a drastic decline in revenue growth, with Q3 and Q4 growth rates of 0.67% and -16.86%, respectively. Q1 2025 continued this trend with a 1.78% growth [6][9]. - The company is facing a challenging environment in the liquor industry, characterized by insufficient social demand and pressure on distribution channels, leading to a general slowdown in revenue growth across manufacturers [6][9]. - The average selling price of mid-to-high-end liquor has decreased by 10.16%, indicating a downward shift in product structure. The gross margin for mid-to-high-end liquor was 91.85%, down 0.42% year-on-year [6][9]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, reducing sales expenses by 10.97% in 2024, with promotional and advertising expenses down by 25% and 4.08%, respectively. This has resulted in an increase in net profit margin to 49.31% in Q1 2025, up 6.04 percentage points from 2024 [7][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan. The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.46 yuan, 10.12 yuan, and 10.68 yuan, respectively [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 86.51%, down 1.03 percentage points from 2024 [6][10]. Inventory and Liabilities - Contract liabilities increased to 3.978 billion yuan in 2024, a 48.82% increase from 2023. In Q1 2025, it decreased to 3.066 billion yuan but remained higher than previous years [6][10]. - Inventory turnover days increased to 1157.93 days in 2024, indicating a slowdown in channel movement. However, in Q1 2025, this improved to 951.37 days, reflecting better inventory management [6][10].