LZLJ(SZ:000568) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-05-09 11:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" rating to the company, predicting a relative increase of 0% to 5% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [6][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.595 billion yuan, up 0.94% year-on-year [6]. - The sales growth has significantly narrowed, with a 17.15 percentage point decrease in revenue growth compared to 2023, indicating a shift to a stock competition phase in the liquor industry [6]. - The average price of mid-to-high-end liquor has decreased by 10.16%, leading to a downward shift in product structure [6]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a 10.97% reduction in sales expenses in 2024, while maintaining a net profit margin of 43.27% [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 27.585 billion yuan, accounting for 88.43% of total revenue, with a sales volume of 42,990.65 tons, up 14.39% year-on-year [6]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points from the previous year, continuing into Q1 2025 with a gross margin of 86.51% [6][7]. Market Position - The company is facing pressure from insufficient social demand, leading to a contraction in revenue growth across the industry [6]. - The market price for the 52-degree 500ml Guojiao 1573 is currently 860 yuan per bottle, below the factory price of 980 yuan, indicating a price inversion [6]. Future Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share of 9.46 yuan, 10.12 yuan, and 10.68 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.44, 12.57, and 11.91 [9][10].