SA(601021) HUAXI Securities·2025-05-09 13:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Spring Airlines, as it is expected to benefit from the future popularization of civil aviation travel in China [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.69%. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 5.317 billion yuan, up 2.88%, but the net profit decreased by 16.39% to 677 million yuan [2][4]. - The report highlights that the company's average passenger kilometer revenue decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, while the overall passenger load factor improved by 2.1 percentage points to 91.49% in 2024 [4]. - The company is expected to see a revenue adjustment for 2025 from 27.074 billion yuan to 22.437 billion yuan, with an estimated EPS reduction from 4.59 yuan to 2.75 yuan. Projections for 2026 and 2027 are set at 26.740 billion yuan and 30.248 billion yuan in revenue, with EPS of 3.47 yuan and 4.12 yuan respectively [4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the estimated revenue is 22.437 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2%. The net profit is projected at 2.692 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.4% increase. The gross margin is expected to be 15.6% [7][18]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including a projected PE ratio of 19.78 for 2025, decreasing to 13.22 by 2027 [7][18]. - The company’s fleet size is expected to grow to 134 aircraft in 2025 and 146 in 2026, with a corresponding increase in available pilots [4][18].