Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-10 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 is subdued, but the key growth driver for 2025 is expected to be offline distribution, with a focus on increasing the proportion of daily sales products and sales performance [5]. - The company achieved revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.723 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.13% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 22.46% year-on-year to 239 million yuan [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Online channels, particularly through Douyin, saw rapid growth, with 2024 online revenue reaching 7.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.60%, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue [2]. - Offline distribution also expanded significantly, with offline channel revenue reaching 3.215 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 48.62% [2]. - The main brand, Three Squirrels, generated revenue of 9.825 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50.57% [3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.25%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale effects and an increase in self-produced products [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 3.84%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 26.74%, showing stability despite a slight decrease of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.522 billion yuan, 16.972 billion yuan, and 20.160 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.3%, 25.52%, and 18.78% [5][12]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.41% [5][12].