YADEA(HK:01585) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-05-11 02:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.5 HKD based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic two-wheeler industry is entering a growth cycle driven by "national subsidies + new national standards," with leading companies like Yadea and Aima expected to gain market share due to their high cost-performance products and supply chain advantages [2][13]. - The company is focusing on product strength and channel efficiency to enhance store performance, with significant efforts in product innovation and market expansion [3][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The report highlights that the growth of the domestic two-wheeler industry will be supported by improved product capabilities, particularly in battery technology and smart features, which are expected to drive up average selling prices (ASP) [2][13]. - The company is actively expanding its product range to cater to diverse consumer segments, with a notable increase in sales from products priced above 3000 RMB [2][9]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 30.14 billion, 34.16 billion, and 39.0 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 137%, 13%, and 14% respectively [4][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to rebound significantly in 2025, with a forecasted revenue of 38.296 billion RMB, up from 28.236 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is focusing on enhancing its three core systems (battery, motor, and control) to improve product performance and safety, with recent advancements in sodium-ion battery technology [27][35]. - The introduction of the sodium-ion battery series is positioned as a key differentiator in the market, with features such as fast charging and high safety standards [27][29]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its international presence, with plans to increase the number of export countries to 100 by 2024, leveraging its strong cash flow to support dividend payments [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets as a second growth curve for the company, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][20]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies expected to capture a larger share of the market as smaller players struggle to maintain their positions [2][13]. - The new national standards are anticipated to raise entry barriers, benefiting established players like Yadea [13][28].