慕思股份：行业大有可为，AI床垫驱动新成长-20250511

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.00 RMB based on a 2025 PE of 18 times [4]. Core Insights - The industry is poised for growth driven by AI mattresses and government subsidies, with short-term demand expected to rebound and long-term expansion potential [1][2][3]. - The company is leveraging AI mattress innovations to enhance customer engagement and increase average transaction values, while also expanding its brand matrix to cover various market segments [2][3][36]. - The acquisition of a Singaporean brand is anticipated to facilitate entry into the Southeast Asian market, which is projected to grow significantly [3][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Demand - Government subsidies are expected to stimulate short-term demand recovery, with significant increases in mattress sales observed on major e-commerce platforms [1][13][18]. - The long-term outlook for the mattress industry remains positive, with potential for increased market share among leading companies as they enhance product offerings and distribution channels [1][21]. AI Mattress Growth Drivers - The global market for AI mattresses is projected to reach approximately 1.8 billion USD by 2024, with the company’s AI mattress products expected to drive sales growth and customer acquisition [2][42]. - The company has developed a comprehensive brand matrix to cater to different price segments, thereby broadening its target consumer base [2][47]. Expansion and Acquisitions - The company’s acquisition of MIPL and its Indonesian factory is expected to enhance its presence in the Southeast Asian market, which is currently underpenetrated compared to China and the US [3][36]. - The Southeast Asian mattress market is projected to reach 3.3 billion USD by 2025, indicating substantial growth opportunities [3][36]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 799 million, 900 million, and 989 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 4.12%, 12.69%, and 9.87% respectively [4][6]. - The revenue forecast shows a gradual increase from 5.6 billion RMB in 2024 to 7.5 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [6][4].