铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250511
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand situation for aluminum suggests a downward direction, with the impact of US tariffs on export demand and the actual decline in photovoltaic production being crucial factors affecting aluminum prices and electrolytic aluminum enterprise profits [3]. - For alumina, the time difference between the spot side and the actual market release of new production capacity supports the spot side, but the overall supply - demand pattern is not expected to reverse significantly [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Aluminum - Price Movement: After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum once led the decline in the non - ferrous sector, reaching a low of 19,300, but then recovered some ground. The future direction depends on factors such as overseas market gaps, export demand, and photovoltaic production data [3]. - Micro - fundamentals: As of May 8, the social inventory of aluminum ingots was 629,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to before the May Day holiday. The weekly production of downstream aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased, as did the output of aluminum profiles, while sample production scheduling increased. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 110 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit returned to a median level in the same period of previous years [3]. Alumina - Price Movement: After a significant decline in the price center before the holiday, the AO futures price rebounded due to stable spot quotes and a production capacity event of a large enterprise. The spot market in the north is still tight after the holiday [4]. - Micro - fundamentals: As of May 8, the all - caliber social inventory of alumina decreased. The domestic spot price of alumina increased slightly, and the FOB forward - spot price in Australia also rose slightly, with the internal - external price difference remaining at a loss of 200 - 300 yuan/ton [4]. Trading - end - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai aluminum remained stable, while the term B structure of alumina narrowed [7]. - Monthly Spread: The near - month spread of Shanghai aluminum narrowed [10]. - Position and Volume: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased, and the trading volume declined significantly. The position of the alumina main contract increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [12]. - Position - Inventory Ratio: The position - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai alumina decreased. The ratio of Shanghai aluminum was slightly higher than the same period last year, while that of alumina was at a historically low level [17]. Inventory - Bauxite: As of May 9, the port inventory and inventory days of imported bauxite increased. The port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory also increased significantly. The outbound volume increased significantly, and the inbound volume increased slightly [21][29][34]. - Alumina: The total inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory in the plant, at electrolytic aluminum plants, at ports, and in transit all decreased [46][53]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline rapidly. As of May 8, the weekly inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 629,000 tons, with a faster decline than in previous years [54]. - Aluminum Rod: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods remained stable, while the outbound volume decreased [60]. - Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Strip - Foil: As of March, the raw material and finished - product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - strip - foil decreased significantly [63]. Production - Bauxite: The supply of domestic bauxite recovered, but the increase was limited. The production in some provinces such as Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends [68][69]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate continued to decline. As of May 9, the national operating capacity decreased by 2.6 million tons week - on - week. The production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.586 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week, and the supply remained loose [74]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May 8, the weekly production was 841,300 tons, a slight increase of 200 tons from the previous week [79]. - Downstream Processing: The production of aluminum profiles and plate - strip - foil decreased slightly. The production of recycled aluminum rods continued to decline, while the production of aluminum rods increased slightly. The production of plate - strip - foil decreased by 3,700 tons [82]. - Downstream Processing - Enterprise开工率: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased slightly to 61.94%. The operating rates of aluminum plate - strip and foil decreased slightly, with potential downward risks in the future [83]. Profit - Alumina: The profit of alumina recovered. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to the Steel Union's caliber was 82.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan increased, and the profit in Guangxi was better [95]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum recovered comprehensively. However, complex global macro - economic conditions and trade policies increased uncertainties [102]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased significantly, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [103]. Consumption - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased [112]. - Export: In April 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons [114]. - Consumption Absolute Quantity: The apparent demand for aluminum rods increased significantly, and the monthly automobile production increased significantly [120].