今世缘：苏酒强者，尽享升级与份额-20250511

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company, as a leading player in Jiangsu's liquor market, is expected to enhance its market share and scale through product upgrades and channel expansion, with projected diluted EPS of 2.99, 3.28, and 3.58 CNY per share for 2025-2027 [1][2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a top-tier representative of Su-style liquor, with a rich history dating back to the Han Dynasty and significant market presence since the establishment of its brands in 1996 and 2004 [2][15] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue exceeding 10 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 20.75% for total revenue and 20.77% for net profit from 2016 to 2024, ranking 3rd and 8th among 20 peers respectively [2][15] Product Structure and Growth - The company has seen a steady improvement in product structure, with revenue from premium categories (300 CNY and above) growing at a CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2024, expected to account for 94% of total revenue by 2024 [3][30] - The company has successfully developed key products in various price segments, with significant growth in the mid-range and premium segments, particularly the V series [3][4] Regional Expansion - The company is expanding its market share within Jiangsu, narrowing the gap with competitors, and is also making strides in out-of-province markets, with a CAGR of 25% for out-of-province revenue from 2019 to 2024 [4][12] - Key markets such as Anhui and Shandong are projected to exceed 200 million CNY in sales by 2024, indicating substantial growth potential [4][12] Financial Performance - The company’s financial metrics show robust growth, with projected revenues of 12.78 billion CNY in 2025 and net profits of 3.73 billion CNY, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [6][11] - The company maintains a healthy financial structure, with a net profit margin of approximately 29.6% and a return on equity (ROE) of 22.1% for 2024 [6][11] Future Outlook - The company aims for a long-term revenue target of 15 billion CNY, supported by ongoing product innovation and market expansion strategies [2][15] - The report emphasizes the company's strong brand positioning and cultural significance, which are expected to drive future growth [2][15]