中国重汽：营收同环比双增，看好内需持续释放-20250511

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 21.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 12.91 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million RMB, also up 13% year-over-year but down 43% quarter-over-quarter, slightly below expectations due to changes in product and market structure [1][2]. - The expansion of the heavy truck replacement policy to include National IV and LNG vehicles is expected to boost demand, with annual heavy truck sales potentially exceeding one million units. The company, as a leading heavy truck manufacturer, is likely to benefit from this industry upturn, enhancing its profit realization capability [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's Q1 revenue growth is attributed to the successful implementation of the heavy truck replacement policy and improved domestic sales, with a gross margin of 7.1% and a net profit margin of 2.4% [2]. - The company is actively pursuing cost reduction and efficiency improvements, resulting in a decrease in expense ratios [2]. Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to recover in 2025, driven by the expanded replacement policy and healthy inventory levels. Price wars are easing, and some manufacturers are even raising prices, which could benefit leading companies [3]. - The demand for new energy heavy trucks is also anticipated to grow, with significant increases in sales of pure electric heavy trucks [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.50 RMB, 1.72 RMB, and 2.12 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price is set at 21.00 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [4][6].