Daqin Railway(SH:601006) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-11 11:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Daqin Railway, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][19]. Core Insights - The company's coal transportation volume has been under pressure, leading to a decline in performance. However, the Daqin line's transportation volume turned positive in April, and the core asset value of the company remains promising [1][6]. - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 746.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90.39 billion yuan, down 24.23% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the freight business, which is the main source of revenue, with a revenue of 534.41 billion yuan in 2024, down 12.73% year-on-year [6]. - The passenger transport business showed good growth, with revenue of 100.1 billion yuan in 2024, up 12.23% year-on-year [6]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 787.43 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [2]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 99.52 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery from previous declines [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [2][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 57.31% for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.1% based on the closing price on May 9, 2025 [6]. Operational Performance - The Daqin line completed a freight volume of 39.215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery with a 0.99% increase in April 2025 [6]. - The average daily loading and unloading operations were reported at 29,350 and 23,703 cars, respectively, with a freight car turnaround time of 2.3 days [6]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Daqin Railway is a high-dividend stock with significant allocation value, emphasizing its strategic position in China's energy transportation system [6]. - The target price is set at 7.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 6.66 yuan [2][6].