信用分析周报：信用债短久期防御为主-20250511

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the credit spreads of AA+ steel industry credit bonds significantly contracted, while those of AA+ electrical equipment industry credit bonds significantly widened. The credit spreads of other industries fluctuated within 5BP or less [2][22][41]. - For urban investment bonds, the short - end credit spreads slightly widened, and the long - end slightly contracted. Maintaining the short - end sinking coupon strategy still has a relative advantage [2][26][41]. - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads showed an overall compression trend this week. However, in a low - interest - rate environment, the duration strategy has limited cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to focus on the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [2][30][41]. - For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads compressed overall this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense [2][34][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 14.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance was 217.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 104.1 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 203 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.8 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 10.3 billion yuan, an increase of 23.7 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 5.3 billion yuan, an increase of 50.1 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 52.6 billion yuan, an increase of 29.7 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was - 43.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 134.1 billion yuan [6]. - In terms of the number of issuances and redemptions, the number of urban investment bond issuances increased by 1, and redemptions decreased by 34; the number of industrial bond issuances increased by 36, and redemptions increased by 4; the number of financial bond issuances decreased by 16, and redemptions decreased by 4 [7]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance rates of AA and AA+ urban investment bonds and AAA industrial bonds increased significantly this week, while those of other bond types and ratings decreased significantly. Specifically, the issuance rate of AA urban investment bonds increased by 21BP, mainly due to high - interest bonds like "25 Jinghe 01" and "25 Liaocheng 04"; the issuance rate of AA+ urban investment bonds increased by 14BP due to large - scale high - interest issuances; the issuance rate of AA industrial bonds decreased the most, mainly due to low - cost bonds like "25 Fengnong 01" and "25 Zumiao 01" [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Transaction Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 175.8 billion yuan compared with last week. Specifically, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 197.4 billion yuan, an increase of 35 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 269.6 billion yuan, an increase of 55.6 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 379 billion yuan, an increase of 85.2 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 5.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4 billion yuan [15]. 3.2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rate of traditional credit bonds increased overall this week, while that of asset - backed securities decreased. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.26%, an increase of 0.22pct; that of industrial bonds was 1.61%, an increase of 0.33pct; that of financial bonds was 2.7%, an increase of 0.62pct; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.18%, a decrease of 0.2pct [16]. 3.2.3 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different maturities and ratings decreased to varying degrees this week. The yield of AA credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased the most, by 13BP. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year all decreased by 7BP or more. The yields of 1 - 3Y credit bonds decreased by 5 - 8BP, and the yield of 5 - 7Y AA credit bonds decreased by 6BP. The yields of other credit bonds decreased by less than 5BP [20]. - Taking AA+ grade 5Y bonds of each variety as an example, the yields of different varieties decreased to varying degrees this week. The yields of privately - issued industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds decreased by 4BP and 2BP respectively; the yield of AA+ grade 5Y urban investment bonds decreased by 3BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds decreased by 4BP and 4BP respectively; and the yield of AA+ grade 5Y asset - backed securities decreased by 4BP [22]. 3.2.4 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of AA+ steel industry credit bonds significantly contracted, while those of AA+ electrical equipment industry credit bonds significantly widened. The credit spreads of other industries fluctuated within 5BP or less [2][22][41]. - Urban Investment Bonds: By maturity, the short - end credit spreads slightly widened, and the long - end slightly contracted. The 0.5 - 1Y urban investment credit spread was 47BP, a 3BP widening from last week; the 1 - 3Y spread was 54BP, compressing by less than 1BP; the 3 - 5Y spread was 80BP, compressing by less than 1BP; the 5 - 10Y spread was 71BP, compressing by 2BP; and the spread for over 10Y was 52BP, compressing by 2BP. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions slightly widened, and those in a few regions narrowed. The AA - grade urban investment credit spread in Shanghai compressed by 7BP, and the fluctuations of urban investment credit spreads of different ratings in other regions were within 4BP [26][27]. - Industrial Bonds: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed an overall compression trend this week, with a slight widening of 5Y AA industrial bonds. The credit spreads of private - placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds with a 5Y AA rating widened by 1BP compared with last week. The credit spreads of industrial bonds with other maturities and ratings compressed slightly within 5BP. In a low - interest - rate environment, the duration strategy has limited cost - effectiveness, and it is recommended to focus on the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [30]. - Bank Capital Bonds: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities compressed to varying degrees this week. For secondary capital bonds, the 3Y AA+ credit spread compressed by 6BP; for bank perpetual bonds, the 3Y AAA -, 3Y AA+, 10Y AA+, and 10Y AA credit spreads compressed by 8BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 6BP respectively. The compression of other bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was no more than 5BP. In the current low - interest - rate environment, the cost - effectiveness of extending the duration is not high, and it is recommended to continue to focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [34]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd.'s "PR19 Fan 1A" and "19 Fan Hai 1B" as the original equity holders defaulted, and Shanghai Xiangyuan Investment Holding Co., Ltd.'s "Xiangyi You" defaulted. The reasons were the failure of investors to receive asset - backed securities income and the non - performance of payment obligations by relevant parties respectively [38][39][40]. - The China Overseas Chinese Town Group Co., Ltd.'s 24 debt issues and Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co., Ltd.'s 4 debt issues had their ChinaBond implicit ratings lowered. The ChinaBond implicit ratings of "21 Xin Guang B" and "PR Xin Guang A" issued by Quzhou Xin'an Development Co., Ltd., and 3 debt issues issued by Yulin Transportation and Tourism Investment Group Co., Ltd. were also lowered. The "H20 Tianying 2" issued by Wuhan Tianying Investment Group Co., Ltd. was extended [2][39][40]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan this week. On May 7, 2025, the central bank announced a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity, and a 10BP OMO interest rate cut [2][41]. - For urban investment bonds, maintain the short - end sinking coupon strategy. For industrial bonds, focus on the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds. For bank capital bonds, focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense [2][30][41].