Daqin Railway(SH:601006) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-11 13:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Daqin Railway (601006) [1] Core Views - The coal transportation volume is under pressure, leading to a decline in performance, but the company’s core asset value remains promising [1] - In April, the Daqin line's transportation volume turned positive, indicating potential recovery [1] - The company is viewed as a high-dividend stock with significant allocation value, especially given its core asset's strategic importance in China's energy transportation system [6] Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 74,627 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, with net profit at 9,039 million, down 24.2% [2][6] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 17,801 million, a decline of 2.56%, and a net profit of 2,571 million, down 15.61% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.49, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [2][6] Operational Performance - The freight business, which is the main revenue source, generated 53,441 million in 2024, a decrease of 12.73%, accounting for 72.88% of total revenue [6] - The company transported 70,622 million tons of goods in 2024, down 2.7% year-on-year [6] - Passenger transport revenue increased by 12.23% in 2024, reaching 10,010 million, with 46.41 million passengers transported [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 99,520 million and 103,360 million respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 104,260 million [6] - The target price is set at 7.7 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of 6.66 yuan [2][6] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% based on 2025 earnings [6]