债券周报：按图索骥，利差压缩到哪一步？-20250511

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market has entered a volatile period without obvious drivers. The short - term impact of the current economic fundamentals on the bond market is limited, and the short - end has fully reacted to the loose funds. The stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [1][2]. - After the interest rate cut, although the short - end benefits may gradually spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The bond market has entered a spread - mining market [3]. - In terms of different maturities, the rotation pattern of government bonds from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end is obvious. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Enters a Volatile Period without Obvious Drivers - Fundamentals: The economic data in April is divergent. Exports are still strong, but the PMI reflects a downward expectation. The second - quarter fundamentals may face some disturbances, and the short - term impact on the bond market is limited [1]. - Monetary Policy: The favorable monetary policy has been implemented, and the funds are loose. The short - end has fully reacted, and the subsequent downward breakthrough of funds still needs to be observed [1]. - Equity Market: After the double - cut this time, the equity market has performed steadily, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: How to Compress Spreads in the Volatile Period? - Although the short - end benefits may spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The previous low may be an important resistance level [3]. - In terms of different maturities, government bonds show a rotation pattern from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: After the Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts, the Yield Curve Steepens - Funding: The central bank's OMO has a large - scale net withdrawal, and the funding is balanced and loose [8]. - Primary Issuance: The net financing of government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased, while that of policy - bank bonds and local government bonds has decreased [8]. - Benchmark Changes: The term spreads of government bonds and CDB bonds have both widened [8].