花旗：苹果公司-谷歌 TAC（总获取成本）敏感度分析

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Apple, Inc. is "Buy" with a target price of $240, representing an expected total return of 22.8$196.25 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Apple is experiencing a decline in search traffic on Safari for the first time, attributed to the rise of AI, and is actively seeking partnerships with AI providers to enhance Safari's search capabilities [1][2]. - Google pays Apple approximately $20 billion annually, which constitutes 36$1 to $1.5 in the base and bear cases respectively [1][5]. Revenue Projections - In the bull case scenario, total revenue for FY24 is projected at$391 billion, with Google TAC contributing $25 billion. EPS is estimated at$6.08 [5]. - In the base case scenario, total revenue is projected to decrease to $387 billion, with Google TAC revenue dropping to$10 billion, resulting in an EPS of $6.16 [5]. - In the bear case scenario, total revenue is expected to fall to$378 billion, with no contribution from Google TAC, leading to an EPS of $5.66 [5]. Valuation - The target price of$240 is based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28x on the FY2027 EPS estimate, which is an 8% premium to Apple's historical P/E levels, justified by expanding gross margins and a growing services sales mix [7].