Investment Rating - Pop Mart is rated as a Top Buy in China's consumer sector, with a target price of HK$415.00, representing an expected return of 92.0% from the current price of HK$216.20 [8][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Pop Mart's user base is growing globally, with 76% of survey participants making their first purchase within one year, and 45% within three months [2][12]. - A significant 87% of respondents expressed a likelihood to purchase Pop Mart products in the next three months, driven by new product series, limited editions, and seasonal releases [3][30]. - Brand perception is strong, with 54% of respondents very satisfied and 39% somewhat satisfied, indicating a positive emotional connection with the brand [4][46]. Summary by Sections Consumer Behavior - 76% of respondents had their first Pop Mart purchase within one year, with 45% within three months [2][12]. - 34% shop for Pop Mart products every month, and 29% every three months, indicating high purchase frequency [12][14]. - 90% of respondents own at least two Pop Mart items, with the US having the highest per capita ownership [18][25]. Purchase Drivers - 87% of respondents are likely to buy Pop Mart products in the next three months, with new series and limited editions being key drivers [3][30]. - 93% plan to buy Pop Mart products in the future, with 48% maintaining current purchase frequency and 26% planning to buy more often [36][39]. - Wider product range, better quality, and lower prices are cited as factors that could increase purchase frequency [40]. Brand Perception - 54% of respondents are very satisfied with Pop Mart, with the highest satisfaction in the US at 70% [46][48]. - Gift-giving and collection/hobby are the top reasons for purchasing, with emotional satisfaction also playing a significant role [48][50]. - Character design, rarity/exclusivity, and emotional connection are highly valued attributes of Pop Mart products [51]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2026 is Rmb 18,357 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb 13.763, reflecting a growth of 35.5% [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross margin of around 72% in 2026 [10]. Market Dynamics - The survey indicates that Pop Mart's user base continues to grow despite concerns about secondary market prices, with only 9% of respondents purchasing from secondhand platforms [2][27]. - The brand's strong presence in physical stores, especially in China, contrasts with higher online purchase ratios in the US and UK [27][29].

Flash | 25 Jan 2026 11:31:03 ET │ 12 pages Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (300450.SZ) Midpoint of 2025 Preliminary Earnings 5%/2% Ahead of CitiE/Consensus; Buy CITI'S TAKE China's leading EV battery equipment maker Wuxi Lead (Lead) released its2025 preliminary results on 25 January, indicating that 2025 net profit could rise by 424%-529% YoY to Rmb1.50bn-1.80bn. The midpoint of the profit range – Rmb1.65bn – came in at 5%/2% ahead of CitiE/Bloomberg consensus. 2025 recurring profit could also increase by 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) [6]. Core Insights - AMEC's preliminary results for 2025 indicate a net profit increase of 29%-35% year-over-year, reaching Rmb2.08 billion to Rmb2.18 billion, with the midpoint aligning with Bloomberg consensus but exceeding CitiE by 12% due to higher investment income [1]. - Despite a contraction in gross profit margin (GPM) by 1.8 percentage points year-over-year, AMEC's gross profit rose by 31% year-over-year to Rmb4.87 billion, driven by a 37% increase in etching machine revenue and a 224% increase in film deposition equipment revenue [1][2]. - The report highlights that AMEC's High Aspect Ratio (HAR) etching machines have entered mass production for advanced logic and memory clients in China, with total etching machine shipments reaching 6,800 units by the end of 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - For 2025, AMEC's net profit is projected at Rmb1.902 billion, with a diluted EPS of Rmb3.058, reflecting a 17.6% growth [4]. - The expected P/E ratio for 2025 is 120.2, with a P/B ratio of 10.7 and an ROE of 9.2% [4]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The report indicates that AMEC's revenue for 2025 is expected to grow by 37% year-over-year, with net profit growth of 29%-35% [9]. - In 4Q25, net profit growth remained strong at 31% year-over-year, despite a slowdown in top-line growth to 21% year-over-year from 51% in 3Q25 [2]. Market Position and Outlook - AMEC is positioned as a key beneficiary of the ongoing import replacement trend in China and the expansion of its semiconductor equipment product portfolio [8]. - The report suggests a solid outlook for AMEC despite GPM pressures, indicating confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AccoTEST is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb258, indicating an expected share price return of 4.6% and a total expected return of 5.1% [2][3]. Core Insights - AccoTEST's preliminary results for 2025 show earnings growth of 46%-78% YoY, estimated between Rmb489 million and Rmb594 million, with a midpoint of Rmb541 million, which is in line with Bloomberg consensus but 5% above Citi's estimates [1]. - The strong earnings improvement is attributed to the recovery in the semiconductor cycle, increased demand for AI, and trends in import replacement [1]. - The production ramp of AccoTEST's new product, the STS8600 SoC tester, is seen as a significant catalyst for share price growth in 2026 [2]. Financial Summary - For the year ending December 31, 2023, AccoTEST reported a net profit of Rmb252 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb1.860, reflecting a decline of 67.8% YoY. The forecast for 2025 estimates a net profit of Rmb516 million and a diluted EPS of Rmb3.809, showing a growth of 54.2% [5]. - The projected earnings for 2026 are expected to reach Rmb683 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb5.040, indicating a growth of 32.3% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Han's CNC Technology is "Buy" with a high-risk designation [5][18]. Core Insights - Han's CNC Technology reported preliminary earnings for 2025 that significantly exceeded expectations, with net profit projected to increase by 161%-194% year-over-year to Rmb785 million-885 million, surpassing CitiE's estimate by 11%-26% and Bloomberg consensus by 12%-26% [1][2]. - The strong earnings growth is attributed to robust demand for PCB equipment, driven by PCB manufacturers expanding capacities to meet the rising demand from AI servers and switches [1]. - The company anticipates a further 67% year-over-year earnings growth in 2026, with potential upside from both mechanical drilling and ultrafast laser drilling equipment, which are applicable for AI PCBs and optical transceivers [1]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - For 2023, net profit was Rmb136 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb0.323, reflecting a decline of 68.8% [3]. - In 2024, net profit is expected to rise to Rmb301 million, with an EPS of Rmb0.717, showing a growth of 122.2% [3]. - The 2025 estimate includes a net profit of Rmb705 million and an EPS of Rmb1.679, indicating a growth of 134.1% [3]. - Projections for 2026 estimate net profit at Rmb1,179 million and an EPS of Rmb2.807, with a growth rate of 67.2% [3]. Market Implications - The strong preliminary results for 2025 are expected to positively impact the share prices of both Han's CNC and its parent company, Han's Laser, which holds approximately 84% of Han's CNC [7]. - The anticipated demand from major clients, such as Apple, for new products like the foldable iPhone, is not yet fully reflected in the stock prices [7]. Valuation - The target price for Han's CNC is set at Rmb140, based on a 50x P/E ratio for 2026 estimates, which is considered reasonable given the projected earnings growth [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the optical transceiver market and recommends TCL Technology as a preferred investment target due to its significant revenue from LCD panels [8][9]. Core Insights - The global smartphone market is expected to see a 5% decline in low-end smartphone shipments in 2026, while average selling prices are projected to rise by nearly 7% [1][3]. - AI-related PCB and server stocks are currently trading at P/E ratios below 20, with Google's contribution to revenue and profit expected to increase significantly by 2026 [6]. - The panel prices are stabilizing after a decline, with an anticipated upward trend starting in 2026, benefiting companies like TCL Technology [7][8]. - The optical transceiver market is performing well, with positive feedback from Google's Gemini 3 project, indicating strong demand for 1.6T and 800G products [9]. Smartphone Market Outlook - The low-end smartphone market is facing challenges, with manufacturers likely to increase prices by approximately 120 RMB per unit to offset rising costs [5][4]. - Semiconductor companies in the smartphone sector are dealing with inventory surplus issues, particularly in the CIS segment, which may lead to short-term difficulties [13]. PCB and Server Industry - The P/E ratios for AI-related PCB and server stocks are low, with expectations for Google's revenue contribution to rise from 15% to 20% and profit from 20% to 25% by 2026 [6]. Panel Industry Trends - TCL Technology holds a strong position in the LCD panel market, with 60%-70% of its revenue derived from this segment, making it a key player as panel prices are expected to rise [8][7]. Memory Market Trends - Memory prices are expected to continue rising until at least mid-2026, with limited impact from Chinese suppliers until 2027 [11]. - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 is anticipated in 2026, as both types are expected to have similar pricing [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to SYTECH and Leader Drive, while it has "Sell" ratings on Envicool and Topband due to rich valuations and increased competition [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in global market liquidity from high-beta stocks like AI and humanoid robots to low-beta stocks, driven by stretched valuations and concerns over monetization [1]. - Order growth momentum for AI infrastructure components such as PCB, CCL, liquid cooling, and power supply is expected to continue rising through 2026 [1]. - SYTECH is noted for its competitive advantage in the CCL market, being the first and only Chinese CCL player in NVIDIA's supply chain, while Leader Drive is positioned well in the US NEV and robot supply chain [1][2]. Summary by Sections AI Infrastructure Chain - The AI infrastructure supply chain, including CCL, PCB, liquid cooling, and power supply, accounts for a significant portion of AI server BOM, with CCL having a better competitive landscape due to high industry concentration [2]. - SYTECH is set to launch a five-year plan to capitalize on AI-CCL opportunities, with expectations of strong revenue and net profit growth of 30% and 164% respectively in Q4 [5]. - New entrants in the liquid cooling market are expected to challenge existing players like Envicool, which is facing increased competition [10]. Humanoid Robot Supply Chain - Leader Drive anticipates significant growth in shipments from major robotic players, with the first batch of shipments expected to reach over a thousand units this year [13]. - The emergence of new players like Xiaomi and XPENG is expected to benefit upstream component suppliers, including Leader Drive [13]. - Leader Drive is becoming a key supplier for harmonic reducers to leading US humanoid robot manufacturers, enhancing its market share [2][13]. AGV / AMR Warehouse Automation - The warehouse automation market is transitioning from traditional AGVs to more flexible AMRs, driven by e-commerce growth and labor shortages [17]. - Companies like Hangcha are expected to benefit from this transition, leveraging their existing capabilities in forklift manufacturing to enter the intelligent warehouse automation space [18][20].

花旗闭门会-中国 ai 和机器人供应链调研，PCBCCL 液冷 看好公司 20251126 摘要 资金从高波动性人工智能股票转向低波动性股票，原因是估值过高以及 对超大规模和人形机器人商业化的担忧，但渠道调查显示，人工智能推 理业务在 2026 年将保持增长势头。 中国人工智能供应链（如 PCB、CCL 液体冷却和电源供应）与韩国、日 本相比仍处于较低层次，但中国供应商的市场份额正在扩大，并积极投 资扩大产能。 电子玩具和电源领域的人工智能相关业务表现突出，例如 88,017 公司 将于 2026 年进入 Optimus 供应链，为投资者提供了机会。 汉森数控公司看到来自中国 AI PCB 机械设备的需求强劲，预计今年人 工智能将占其收入的 30%，该公司正在开发超快激光钻孔设备，并得到 客户的积极反馈。 多家协作机器人公司预计 2026 年业务将实现增长，特斯拉也在加强配 件供应链建设并提升产能，人形机器人零部件供应商将显著受益。 我们在深圳和上海访问了 11 家公司，主要涉及人工智能基础设施领域。我们 与多家公司的高管会面，并参观了人工智能推理系统的展厅。调查显示，全球 股票市场正在将资金从高波动性的人工 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Roborock is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb241.5, indicating an expected share price return of 47.8% and an expected total return of 48.2% [4][7]. Core Insights - Roborock's robot vacuum business experienced a GMV growth of over 30% YoY during the "11.11" shopping event in China, but the company anticipates a significant gap in sales growth for 4Q25E due to high competition and previous government subsidies [1][2]. - The management is optimistic about business momentum in Europe and APAC markets, despite facing challenges in the US market due to tariffs and inventory pressures [3][4]. - The company is focusing on dual-mopper robot vacuum products and has launched new models to meet consumer demand [2][3]. Summary by Sections Robot Vacuum Business - The GMV for the robot vacuum business grew over 30% YoY during "11.11" in China, but the management expects a decrease in subsidy contributions in 4Q25E [2]. - The net price of key products has been adjusted to Rmb3k+, which is higher QoQ, indicating a strategy to maintain pricing power [2]. Overseas Business - There has been stable growth in Europe and APAC markets, while the US market shows weak growth due to high tariffs and inventory issues [3]. - The blended ASP in direct sales channels overseas is approximately US$600, with a previously achieved OPM of around 15% in the US [3]. Other Business Segments - The wet-dry vacuum business ranks second in market share in China, but is expected to incur net losses in 4Q25 due to ongoing subsidies [4][6]. - The washing machine segment reported a net loss of Rmb40-50 million in 3Q25, with plans to reduce losses through lower selling expenses [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance is "Buy" with a target price of HK$24.00, representing an expected share price return of 46.4% [5]. Core Insights - The company aims to maintain a combined ratio (CoR) of approximately 95-96% in its domestic P&C insurance business, with significant growth opportunities identified in health, innovative, and auto insurance sectors [2]. - The customer base of ZA Bank has expanded to 1.2 million, with expectations to break even in FY25E, driven by the launch of H-share trading services and a focus on retail customers [3]. - Management anticipates notable improvement in FY25E net profit due to stabilized profitability in domestic underwriting, breakeven of ZA Bank, and increased investment returns [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic P&C Insurance Business - Management expects ample opportunities in health insurance driven by regulatory support and product offerings, pet insurance expansion, and rapid growth in auto insurance due to online purchase penetration and expense rationalization [2]. - The CoR for auto insurance was reported at 91% in 1H25, attributed to a higher mix of household vehicles [2]. ZA Bank - ZA Bank's customer base grew from approximately 1 million to 1.2 million, with plans to target foreign passport holders in 2026E [3]. - The number of wealth management accounts exceeded 300,000, and customer acquisition costs have significantly decreased [3]. Financial Performance - Management expects a notable improvement in FY25E net profit, driven by the stabilization of the domestic underwriting business and narrowing losses in the technology segment [4].