XIANGPIAOPIAO(SH:603711) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-12 05:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure in its inventory management for its brewed products, while the fruit tea segment shows strong growth momentum [2][3]. - The company is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2025, focusing on inventory reduction and expanding marketing efforts through pop-up stores [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3.287 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.32% year-on-year, with a net profit of 253.19 million yuan, down 9.67% [5][12]. - The revenue breakdown shows brewed products generating 2.271 billion yuan (down 15.4%) and ready-to-drink products at 973 million yuan (up 8%) for 2024 [2][3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to remain stable at 7.7%, with a slight increase in the non-GAAP net profit margin [3][12]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 2% for 2025, 8% for 2026, and 6% for 2027, with corresponding revenues of 3.336 billion, 3.586 billion, and 3.809 billion yuan [4][11]. - The net profit is expected to grow by 5% in 2025, 16% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, with projected figures of 266.93 million, 308.54 million, and 338.97 million yuan respectively [4][11]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 39.34% by 2027 [13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.34 in 2024 to 15.94 by 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [5][12].