KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 海通国际证券·2025-05-12 05:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced attractiveness for investment, supported by strong strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund allocations [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance stability across economic cycles, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024, alongside high dividend payouts [5][15][16] Financial Summary - Current price is Rmb1,591 with a target price of Rmb1,972, reflecting a potential upside [2][16] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb190,868 million, Rmb208,285 million, and Rmb228,087 million respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb98,561 million, Rmb108,443 million, and Rmb120,373 million [2][11][15] - The company maintains a gross profit margin (GPM) of around 92% and a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 36% [5][11][15] Investment Thesis - The investment thesis highlights the company's high dividend payout ratio of 75% and a dividend yield of 3.5%, providing a solid return cushion [16] - The management's confidence is further demonstrated by share repurchases totaling Rmb3.039 billion, supporting the stock price [16] - The report adjusts the earnings forecast and target price due to a decrease in growth guidance from 15% to 9% for 2025, with a revised PE ratio of 26 times for 2025 [16]