PDH(SH:600048) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-12 06:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have both declined significantly, with a 10.2% decrease in revenue to 311.7 billion yuan and a 58.6% drop in net profit to 5 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to reduced delivery scale, declining gross margin, and impairment provisions totaling approximately 5.5 billion yuan [1][9]. - Despite the decline in sales area by 24.7% to 17.97 million square meters and sales amount by 23.5% to 323 billion yuan, the company maintained its leading position in the industry for the second consecutive year, with a stable sales amount attributable to shareholders of approximately 246.5 billion yuan, down 14.5% [2][10]. - The company has optimized its land reserves, with a total land reserve of approximately 62.58 million square meters, and a significant increase in the proportion of new projects with equity reaching 88%, the highest in nearly a decade [2][10]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is reported at 13.9%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for future gross margins to stabilize despite the ongoing challenges in the industry [1][9][16]. - The financial forecast indicates a continued decline in revenue for 2025 and 2026, with projected revenues of 284.2 billion yuan and 272.3 billion yuan respectively, and net profits of 5.2 billion yuan and 5.3 billion yuan, leading to earnings per share (EPS) of 0.43 yuan and 0.44 yuan [4][20][23]. - The company’s debt structure remains stable, with 39.6% of interest-bearing debt maturing in over three years, and a decrease in the comprehensive cost of interest-bearing debt to 3.1%, marking a historical low [3][12].