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老凤祥(600612):金价高企下经营持续承压,关注后续产品和渠道优化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][13] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue dropping by 20.5% year-on-year to 567.93 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by 11.9% to 19.50 billion yuan in 2024. For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 31.6% to 175.21 billion yuan and net profit decreased by 23.6% to 6.13 billion yuan. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 17.63 billion yuan, 19.11 billion yuan, and 20.61 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.37 yuan, 3.65 yuan, and 3.94 yuan [4][5][8] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company's jewelry business revenue was 469.08 billion yuan, a decline of 19.3% year-on-year. The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 8.9% and 9.1% respectively, showing an increase of 0.6 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the same periods was 4.5% and 4.6%, with increases of 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [5][8][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on brand renewal, product optimization, and channel enhancement to restore growth momentum. This includes deepening customer insights, enhancing brand recognition through themed stores, and accelerating the development of fashionable and youthful product designs. The company is also expanding its market presence in key regions such as Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei [6][9]