PDH(SH:600048) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-12 07:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have both declined significantly, with a 10.2% decrease in revenue to 311.7 billion yuan and a 58.6% drop in net profit to 5 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to reduced delivery scale, declining gross margin, and impairment provisions totaling approximately 5.5 billion yuan [1][9]. - Despite the decline in sales area by 24.7% to 17.97 million square meters and sales amount by 23.5% to 323 billion yuan, the company maintained its leading position in the industry for the second consecutive year, with a stable sales amount attributable to shareholders of approximately 246.5 billion yuan [2][10]. - The company has optimized its debt structure, with the proportion of interest-bearing debt maturing in over three years increasing to 39.6%, and the comprehensive financing cost of interest-bearing debt decreasing to a historical low of 3.1% [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 13.9%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with total impairment provisions of about 5.5 billion yuan [1][9]. - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 284.2 billion yuan and 272.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.2 billion yuan and 5.3 billion yuan, leading to EPS of 0.43 yuan and 0.44 yuan [3][23]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s sales in 38 core cities accounted for 90% of total sales, with a market share of 7.1%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [2][10]. - The company expanded its land reserves, with a total land reserve area of approximately 62.58 million square meters, including 10 million square meters of new projects concentrated in core cities [2][10]. Debt and Financing - The company’s debt structure has improved, with a significant reduction in the cost of new interest-bearing debt, which decreased by 22 basis points to 2.92% [3][12]. - The comprehensive financing cost of interest-bearing debt has also decreased by 46 basis points to 3.1%, marking a historical low [3][12].