湖南裕能（301358）：Q4业绩筑底，涨价落地驱动盈利拐点显现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hunan YN is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with a total revenue of 22.6 billion yuan, down 45.4% year-on-year, primarily due to the drop in lithium carbonate prices affecting the pricing of cathode materials [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 594 million yuan, a decrease of 62.45% year-on-year, with a negative operating cash flow of 1.04 billion yuan due to increased inventory [4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.76 billion yuan, up 49.6% year-on-year, driven by a 63.68% increase in phosphate cathode material sales [4] - The company has seen a steady increase in lithium iron phosphate sales, with a total of 711,000 tons sold in 2024, marking a 40.2% year-on-year increase, maintaining the industry's leading market share [5] - The company is advancing its capacity construction to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, with projects in Guizhou and Spain underway, and is exploring markets in Southeast Asia and North America [6] - The company’s technology and scale advantages are expected to drive future profitability, with projected net profits of 1.69 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 22.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 594 million yuan, with a gross margin of 7.8% [8] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.9 billion yuan, 39.65 billion yuan, and 45.22 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.69 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.59 billion yuan [8] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.42x, 10.01x, and 8.76x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8]