湖南裕能：Q4业绩筑底，涨价落地驱动盈利拐点显现-20250512

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hunan YN is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with a total revenue of 22.6 billion yuan, down 45.4% year-on-year, primarily due to the drop in lithium carbonate prices affecting the pricing of cathode materials [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 594 million yuan, a decrease of 62.45% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 570 million yuan, also down 62.44% [4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.76 billion yuan, an increase of 49.6% year-on-year, driven by a 63.68% increase in phosphate cathode material sales [4] - The company maintained its leading market share in lithium iron phosphate, with a total sales volume of 711,000 tons in 2024, up 40.2% year-on-year [5] - The company is advancing its capacity construction and cost reduction initiatives, with projects in Guizhou and Spain, and is exploring markets in Southeast Asia and North America [6] Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.9 billion yuan, 39.65 billion yuan, and 45.22 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.2%, 24.3%, and 14.0% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise to 1.69 billion yuan in 2025, 2.27 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.59 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 184.7%, 34.2%, and 14.2% [8] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.42x, 10.01x, and 8.76x, respectively [7][8]