Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Wuliangye Yibin with a target price of RMB 172.00, down from a previous target of RMB 194.00 [2][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the core assets of Wuliangye remain strong despite the industry adjustment period, with a focus on enhancing marketing execution and implementing three major reforms: controlling volume and price, brand upgrading, and channel reconstruction [3][11]. - The company has experienced five consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 93.8 billion for 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 12.2% from 2019 to 2024 [4][12]. - The gross profit margin has improved for six consecutive years, reaching 87.0% for Wuliangye products, indicating a strong product structure optimization [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 93.8 billion and net profit of RMB 33.5 billion, with diluted EPS projected at RMB 8.6 [5][14]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 36.94 billion and a net profit of RMB 14.86 billion for Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively [4][12]. Market Context - The Chinese stock market is experiencing an uptrend, with high dividend core assets being favored. The SSE/Hang Seng Index has performed well, supported by government policies and foreign capital inflows [3][10]. - The Baijiu industry is facing intensified differentiation, with Wuliangye expected to solidify its leading position during the current industry adjustment [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation of 20x 2025e PE for Wuliangye, which is lower than the previous valuation of 22x for 2024, reflecting adjustments in growth expectations [5][14]. - The company's dividend payout ratio is set to increase from 60% in FY23 to 70% in FY24, which is significantly higher than the A-share average [5][14].
五粮液(000858):行业调整期不改核心资产本色