SHINVA(600587) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-12 11:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see profit growth in 2025, driven by the recovery of bidding processes and management optimization, despite a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025 due to high base effects and previous bidding impacts [1][2] - The company's revenue is projected to recover in H2 2025, with significant growth anticipated in its core business segments of medical devices and pharmaceutical equipment [2][3] - The company has a strong patent portfolio, which provides a competitive edge and supports the growth of new products, leading to higher profit margins in its core segments [3] - International expansion is showing positive results, with overseas revenue increasing by 16.5% in 2024, indicating potential for long-term growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.021 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.692 billion yuan, up 5.75% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue decline of 3.63% and a net profit decrease of 0.97% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.308 billion yuan, down 8.74% year-on-year, and net profit was 0.160 billion yuan, down 23.97% year-on-year [1] Growth Potential - The company has shifted focus towards its core business, with medical devices' revenue share increasing from 22% to 37% from 2018 to 2024, and pharmaceutical equipment's share rising from 8% to 22% [2] - The anticipated recovery in bidding processes and the introduction of new products are expected to drive significant revenue and profit growth in 2025, particularly in H2 [2][3] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 26.1%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.9%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.8%, down 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin was 6.99%, down 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [5] Forecast and Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 10.679 billion yuan, 11.672 billion yuan, and 12.787 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.57%, 9.30%, and 9.56% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 0.790 billion yuan, 0.927 billion yuan, and 1.083 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14.16%, 17.43%, and 16.84% respectively [6][11]