TKGF(SH:601233) Tebon Securities·2025-05-12 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 101.31 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China and is expected to benefit from industry recovery and new capacity investments in regions like Fujian and Anhui [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 25.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 611 million yuan [6] - The company’s polyester production capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, and it plans to add two new production lines in 2025, which are expected to enhance profitability [6][9] Industry Outlook - The growth rate of polyester filament production capacity is expected to slow down significantly, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The demand for polyester filament is anticipated to increase by 18% year-on-year in 2024, with an absolute increment of nearly 5 million tons [7] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with the market share of the top six companies increasing from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher industry concentration [7]