Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-12 12:12Report Core View - After the China-US peace talks, there may be opportunities to buy ships for soybean imports in the fourth quarter, but the far - month crushing profit is still negative, so the ship - buying progress will be slow. The short - term trading is mainly based on sentiment. The outer - market logic lies in the game between supply (US soybean new - crop planting) and demand (export and crushing), while the inner - market trades the expectation of high supply pressure and accelerated oil - mill operation. In the long - term, the fundamental logic will return to US soybean new - crop planting and trade - war negotiations. In the near - term, after the release of spot pressure, a bullish view on the spread and the futures price is recommended [4]. - The outer - market cost valuation after the China - US peace talks supports the far - month prices, and there is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - month due to tariff disturbances and Brazilian export premiums. However, the subsequent soybean supply will be smooth, and the demand side is cautious [4][5][8]. Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for bean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 68.5%. The monthly price forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.819 [3]. Hedging Strategies Trader Inventory Management - With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, traders can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Feed - mill Procurement Management - With low regular inventory, feed mills can buy M2509 bean - meal futures at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. Oil - mill Inventory Management - Fearing excessive imported soybeans and low bean - meal prices, oil mills can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Futures Price Quotes | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2948 | 3 | 0.1% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2762 | - 43 | - 1.53% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2908 | 9 | 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2312 | - 11 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2434 | - 41 | - 1.66% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2544 | - 7 | - 0.27% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1052.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.2404 | 0.0001 | 0% | [10] Spread and Basis Quotes | Spread/Basis | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 186 | 46 | | M05 - 09 | - 146 | - 52 | | M09 - 01 | - 40 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | - 122 | 30 | | RM05 - 09 | - 110 | - 34 | | RM09 - 01 | 232 | 4 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3040 | - 120 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 132 | - 129 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2467 | - 32 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 84 | - 20 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 573 | - 120 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 364 | 16 | [11] Import Cost and Crushing Profit | Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5337.1031 | 0 | 0.0098 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3675.98 | 35.33 | - 16.59 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (47%) | - 1597.5003 | - 6.8194 | 27.7825 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1622.0881 | 0 | - 15.7357 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 251.4047 | - 0.0485 | 0.0142 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 30 | 18 | 22 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 22 | 15 | 18 | [12]