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云路股份(688190):非晶龙头产能提升,2024年延续增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 1.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 361 million yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated at 344 million yuan, reflecting a 12.6% increase year-on-year [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Breakdown: - The revenue from amorphous alloy strips and related products is expected to be 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with a shipment of 96,000 tons, up 10% year-on-year. This growth is primarily driven by the new production line launched in Q3, contributing an additional 15,000 tons of annual capacity [10]. - Revenue from nanocrystalline products is projected at 305 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 34.7%, with shipments of 7,000 tons, up 36% year-on-year [10]. - Revenue from magnetic powder and related products is expected to be 142 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with shipments of 88,000 tons, up 21% year-on-year [10]. - Profitability Metrics: - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to reach 30.58%, a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for Q4 2024 is projected at 30.01%, down 2.00 percentage points year-on-year and 1.79 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The gross margin for amorphous alloy strips and related products is expected to be 35.68%, up 1.48 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - Expense Management: - The total expense ratio for 2024 is projected to be 9.92%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio is expected to be 2.37%, down 0.60 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - Financial Health: - The company's asset-liability ratio at the end of 2024 is expected to be 20.26%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Future Outlook - The company is anticipated to maintain a strong growth trajectory due to the gradual ramp-up of amorphous transformers and the promising application space for amorphous motors. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 420 million yuan in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 27 times [10].