Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [14]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 5.603 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 767 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 723 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +0.4%, -4%, and -8% respectively [2][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 are projected to see declines in revenue and profits, but the underlying trend is positive when excluding the impact of the "辛巴" disturbance, with national subsidies and AI mattresses acting as catalysts for growth [2][7]. - The company is focusing on accelerating the growth of AI mattresses and expanding its overseas business, aiming to capture market share [14]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company anticipates revenues of 5.603 billion, with a net profit of 767 million and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 723 million, showing a slight increase in revenue but declines in profits [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, revenues are expected to be 1.725 billion, with net profits of 245 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3% [6][7]. Market Trends and Product Performance - The company’s revenue is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a notable improvement in Q4 compared to Q3 [7]. - The performance of different sales channels in 2024 shows a decline in traditional distribution but growth in e-commerce and direct sales, with AI mattresses contributing significantly to sales [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging national subsidies and the introduction of AI mattresses to enhance its market position [14]. - Plans include launching new AI product lines and opening dedicated stores to improve consumer awareness and acceptance [14]. - The company aims to optimize its product offerings and sales strategies, focusing on high-end products and enhancing brand loyalty through customer service initiatives [14]. Financial Metrics and Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 814 million, 911 million, and 1.050 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 14, and 12 [14]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 90% in 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 5.4% [14].
慕思股份（001323）：2024A、2025Q1点评：国补带动需求修复，AI床垫加速拓展助力提份额